• Wealthy Investors Shrug at Facebook IPO After Private Buys- According to Elizabeth Ody and Margaret Collins, wealth investors aren’t jumping at the opportunity to buy up Facebook’s stocks.  The reason?  Some investors already bought stocks through private transactions while others fear risky tech investments.
• The 6 Most Surprising Things from Facebook’s IPO Filing- Mike Isaac from Wired.com discusses the 6 most surprising things from Facebook’s filing, including Zygna’s role in the deal and the enormous emphasis Facebook is placing on mobile advertisements.

Google faces further challenges with EU- The European Union committee for data protection has asked Google to suspend the release of its new privacy policy while it reviews the impact the change will have on EU users.  The privacy changes announced last week would improve Google’s ability to collect and disseminate user information across all its services. Jacob Kohnstamm, chairman of Article 29, the EU’s committee for data protection, wrote in a statement, “We wish to check the possible consequences for the protection of the personal data of these [EU] citizens in a coordinated procedure.” The committee has asked CNIL, a French data protection watchdog, to lead the investigation.

Facebook hires political insiders- According to the Washington Post, Facebook has started appointing political veterans to its board and other important executive roles in an effort to improve its position in Washington with a robust lobbying operation.  According to Steve Stesney from First Street, a software company specializing in analysis for politicians and lobbyists,  “They are going all out to hire people who are well-connected and buying the Rolodexes that these people bring from the government.”

Google to enable per-country blocking on Blogger- Google has announced the upcoming release of its country-specific URL scheme for Blogger.  According to Google, the localized domain system will make it easier for Google to remove content that violates specific country’s laws while impacting the smallest number of readers.  According to Google, “Migrating to localized domains will allow us to continue promoting free expression and responsible publishing while providing greater flexibility in complying with valid removal requests pursuant to local law. By utilizing ccTLDs country-code top level domains (ccTLD), content removals can be managed on a per-country basis, which will limit their impact to the smallest number of readers. Content removed due to a specific country’s law will only be removed from the relevant ccTLD.”

Google launches Bouncer- Google announced the release of its new system ‘Bouncer’ yesterday that automatically scans Android apps for malware. “The service performs a set of analyses on new applications, applications already in Android Market, and developer accounts,” explains Hiroshi Lockheimer, VP of Engineering, Android. “Here’s how it works: once an application is uploaded, the service immediately starts analyzing it for known malware, spyware and trojans. It also looks for behaviors that indicate an application might be misbehaving, and compares it against previously analyzed apps to detect possible red flags.”

Google confirms Panda 3.2- According to Barry Schwartz at Search Engine Land, Google has confirmed the release of Panda 3.2, but there were no additional signals or algorithm changes in this update.  It was just a data refresh.

US mobile ad spending exceeds expectations- According to eMarketer, mobile ad spending increased 89% in 2011 to $1.45 billion from $769.6 million in 2009.  eMarketer forecasts mobile ad spending will increase to $1.8 billion in 2012.

Google opens up Google+ to teenagers- Google announced on Thursday that it would open up Google+ to users 13+ as well as introduce new safety protections for underage users.  Previously, individuals had to be at least 18 to join the network.  New user protections include kicking teenagers off Hangout if a stranger joins the conversation and reminding a user when they are about to share a post publically.  “Between strong user protections and teen-focused content, it’s our hope that young adults will feel at home (and have some fun) on Google+,” explains Google+ VP Bradley Horowitz in a Google+ post.

• For more on the change, check out Mike Issac’s article Google+ Aims to Attract Young Users, Just Like Facebook, which explains in more detail Google’s aggressive “get’em while they’re young” approach.

Twitter acquires Dasient- On Monday Twitter announced its acquisition of the Internet security firm Dasient.  Dasient is an antimalware technology startup based in Sunnyvale, CA, which offers a service to protect ad networks and publishers from malware ads.  The details of the deal were not disclosed.

Facebook makes Timeline compulsory- Facebook announced this week that it would make its Timeline feature compulsory.  The feature has been opt-in since its introduction at the end of 2011.

Twitter can now censor tweets- Twitter announced on Thursday that it now has the technology to censor tweets that violate individual countries’ restrictions on speech.  ”Until now, the only way we could take account of those countries’ limits was to remove content globally,” Twitter said in a blog post. “Starting today, we give ourselves the ability to reactively withhold content from users in a specific country — while keeping it available in the rest of the world. We have also built in a way to communicate transparently to users when content is withheld, and why.”

FBI seeks Facebook-snooping app- The FBI is soliciting proposals for an app, which can sort through content on online media sites and social networks.  The app should “have the ability to rapidly assemble critical open-source information and intelligence that will allow SIOC to quickly vet, identify, and geo-locate breaking events, incidents, and emerging threats,” according to the FBI’s application guide.

What we’re reading:

• Facebook’s Sandberg Gently Warns Europe About Privacy Rules- Somini Sengupta discusses Sheryl Sandberg’s keynote speech at a the Digital Life Design conference in Munich this week, which focused on technology’s potential to future create jobs in Europe and the States.
• Wall Street clicks ‘like’ on Facebook IPO- Jessica Guynn and Walter Hamilton discuss Facebook’s upcoming IPO and the effects it could have on investors.
• Is Google buying AND SELLING links? – The omniscient SEO Lamp investigates some interesting linking strategies from the #1 US search engine.

At the beginning of this year, Aaron Wall from SEO Book discovered that Google, or someone working on behalf of the Google Chrome account, paid bloggers to mention and link to the Google Chrome landing page. The Google webspam team eventually penalized this activity by manually demoting the Google Chrome landing page for 60 days in the SERPs as well as saying they’d lower the PageRank of the page.

In the end Google said they never intended the paid links to be a part of their Google Chrome video promotion activity and blamed Unruly Media who conducted the campaign, but we’ll never know for sure. If anything this raises the question just how seriously Google is suffering from dissociative identity disorder. You’d think the Google execs would mandate that all divisions abide by their very own guidelines for proper online promotion. But hey, they’re Google. They can do what they want, right?

Now, the Selling

This brings us to the next big question: Is Google SELLING links as well? I raise this question based on an observation I made on Google’s Science Fair Partners page. 

This page provides background information on the four primary sponsors of the Google Science Fair 2012.

I first looked at this page on January 12^th.

At first glance everything seemed to be on the up and up. BUT when I scrolled down and read through the descriptions of all four sponsors, I noticed that only one of the sponsors had a direct link to their website. That one sponsor was Scientific American.

I was a bit puzzled by why this sponsor was the only one to receive a backlink. At first, I figured it was a result of their CMS automatically changing the .com mention into a link, but I also noticed that National Geographic had NatGeoEd.org listed and it wasn’t a link. So I decided to take a screenshot and check it out the following day.

However, when I returned to the page on January 13^th, I noticed the Scientific American link was gone BUT National Geographic now had two links!

Unfortunately I wasn’t expecting these changes to happen so I didn’t take a screenshot of the National Geographic not having the links the day before. But it was clear that a change had been made to the Scientific American link. In replacement of the link, the previous anchor text was now in brackets and the fully formed URL was in parenthesis.

Later on I discovered that the new NatGeoEd.org link was (and still is) a broken link (coded as a relative link missing the fully formed http://www.)

I’d be willing to attribute sloppy coding or their CMS to the broken .com and .org links, but it looks like someone purposefully included an anchor text link to the National Geographic website AND purposefully left off the ‘s in the anchor text (although the ‘s is specifically used in the content).

So, the obvious questions are:

• Did National Geographic negotiate to have a followed, brand-specific anchor text link from this page (which is a PR 6) as part of their deal to sponsor the Google Science Fair 2012?
• Were the other sponsors just not savvy enough to make such a request?
• What kind of sloppy code/CMS is Google using??

A simple Google search will reveal that the other sponsors have their own websites, so why aren’t they getting any backlink love? If all four sponsors had a link back to their respective websites, I would chalk the links up to Google simply providing all relevant information about the sponsors.

But why only the one link???

Why is the anchor text so specifically brand focused?

Why drop the ‘s from the anchor text?

Maybe I’m being a bit nitpicky with them dropping the ‘s, but all of this does raise the question “Is Google Selling Links???”

We kicked off the New Year with Google’s rollout of “Search Plus Your World,” a new system that strives to make search results more relevant and personalized by integrating Google’s social search, personal search, and personalized search algorithms into one.  Search Plus immediately sparked controversy among online privacy advocates, who contend that Google’s Search Plus is in violation of the settlement the FTC and Google reached back in March 2011. The ruling requires Google to establish a comprehensive privacy policy, submit to independent privacy audits for the next 20 years, and make features ‘opt-in only’ if they make available the sharing of private user information.  Other concerns have come from Google’s competitors—Facebook and Twitter among others—who claim the new service gives preference to Google+ content over other social sources, and in doing so, dilutes the overall quality of Google’s search results.

Check out the following resources to read more on the criticism Google’s Search Plus has received to date:

• Google tying Google Plus and many more- Ben Edelman, Assistant Professor at Harvard Business School who researches Google, search, and search marketing, states, “Google’s tying tactics should not be permitted.  Google’s dominant position in search requires that the company hold itself to a higher level of conduct, including avoiding tying its other products to its dominant search service.  Google has repeatedly crossed the line, and antitrust enforcement action is required to put a stop to these practices.”
• Is too much plus a minus for Google?-  Wired’s Steven Levy worries that Search Plus will adversely affect the quality of Google’s search results and quips, “there’s too much Plus and not enough of Our World, which has oodles of content on other social networks.”
• Real-Life Examples Of How Google’s “Search Plus” Pushes Google+ Over Relevancy- Industry pundit Danny Sullivan notes in reference to a set of Google+-centric search results for Britney Spears, “Google’s job as a search engine is to direct searchers to the most relevant information on the web, not just to information that Google may have an interest in.  These suggestions would be better if they included other services, and that’s the standard Google’s search results should aim for, returning the best.”

The debate over Google+ and Search Plus doesn’t stop here, though.  With the recent introduction of Google’s new username policy and its automatic Google+ opt-in for all new Gmail accounts, we can expect to hear a lot more from the privacy advocacy community as well as Google’s competitors.

Google+ now allows pseudonyms (well, not really)- The debate over online identity and the use of pseudonyms on social networks has been an on-going topic within a larger discourse about privacy, public identity, freedom of thought and expression, and advertisement in the digital era.  Google Plus weighed in on this debate on Monday and changed their policy to allow users to use nicknames and pseudonyms on the network.

Don’t get too excited. This doesn’t mean we will be able to revive our old AIM usernames.  Google will only allow users to use nicknames, maiden names, or pseudonyms if the user can prove to Google through the proper documentation that he or she is publicly known under that name either on- or offline.  If Google flags a user profile that it suspects to be operating under a pseudonym, Google requests the user provide substantial proof of their identity though “references to an established identity online in print media, official documentation, or proof of an established online identity with a meaningful following.”*  “We want to build a product that is for humanity at large, and we recognize people have many notions around identity and ways to represent themselves,” states Bradley Horowitz in a Google+ post announcing the change.  “We want to be as inclusive as possible while still ensuring the integrity of the system and the community.”

• For more on the debate about online identity, check out 4chan founder Christopher ‘moot’ Poole’s speech about reclaiming online identity at the Web 2.0 Summit last year:

Automatic Google+ opt-in- Google Operating System (not affiliated with Google) broke the news on Friday that users can no longer sign up for a new Gmail account without automatically creating a Google Profile and joining Google+.  In response to Google Operating System’s post, a Google spokesperson explained,  ”We’re working to develop a consistent sign-up flow across our different products as part of our efforts to create an intuitive, beautifully simple, Google-wide user experience.  Making it quick and easy to create a Google Account and a Google profile enables new users to take advantage of everything Google can offer.”

Focus on the user- Developers at Twitter, Facebook, and MySpace have developed a demo, which allows users to view how often Google ignores relevant results from other social networks in favor of its own Google+ profiles.  The tool relies entirely on Google’s own data.  Here’s how it works, “If Google decides that it’s relevant to surface a Google+ page as a result in any of the areas where Google+ content is hardcoded, the tool searches Google for the name of the Google+ page.  Then, the tool identifies the social profiles within the first ten pages of Google results (top 100 results). The ones Google ranks highest — whether they are from Flickr, Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace, Quora, Tumblr, Foursquare, Crunchbase, FriendFeed, Stack Overflow, Github or Google+ — replace the previous results that could only be from Google+.  This tool is offered as a bookmarklet, which is a small bit of code that runs in a web browser and temporarily enables additional functionality.”

What do you think about Search Plus?  How has it impacted your Google search experience?  And has it changed your opinion of Google+?

* Italics added by author.

Google disappoints analysts with Q4 results- Google released its Q4 earnings report for 2011 yesterday.  Despite its 25% increase in revenue Y/Y in Q4, Google’s results disappointed analysts, who were dissatisfied by Google’s 8% Y/Y drop in cost-per-click metrics.  Analysts are skeptical that Google will be able to push net revenue in 2012 amidst antitrust investigations, increasing competition from Facebook, and its acquisition of Motorola.  Google’s stock sunk almost 10% yesterday after the announcement.

• For more perspective on Google’s Q4 earning’s report, check out Claire Cain Miller’s coverage of the announcement on the New York Times.

Google+ hits 90 million users- During his quarterly report yesterday, Larry Page announced that ” there are over 90 million Google+ users – well over double what I announced just a quarter ago on our earnings call. Engagement on Google+ is also growing tremendously. I have some amazing data to share there for the first time: Google+ users are very engaged with our products – over 60% of them engage daily, and over 80% weekly.”  Since its launch in July 2011, more than 1 million Google+ Page have been created and more than 3.4 billion photographs have been uploaded to the site.  By way of comparison, Facebook boasts 800 million users and more than 6 billion photo uploads monthly.

Wikipedia goes black in protest of SOPA- It was a strange day on the Internet on Wednesday when Wikipedia introduced a 24-hour shutdown of its English-language site as part of a web-wide protest against SOPA and PIPA.  On Wednesday, users were confronted with an ominous black and white page with accompanying message: “Imagine a World Without Free Knowledge.”

• To learn more about SOPA, PIPA, and the controversy surrounding the new proposed pieces of legislation, check out Cassandra Caswell-Stirling’s article SOPA- What You Need to Know Today.

Facebook introduces new Timeline apps- Facebook introduced 60 new apps to its timeline this week.  Facebook’s current partners include Gogobot, Tripadvisor, Pinterest, Digg as well as Ticketmaster, StubHub, ScoreBig and Eventbrite.   Now, instead of just being able to “Like” things on Facebook, you’ll be able to “Eat,” “Run,” “Buy,” etc. “Soon, there will be apps for all types of interests, as more apps will launch over time. Whether you love snowboarding, gardening, hiking, or knitting, or something else, there will be an app for you,” explains Carl Sjogreen, director of platform at Facebook, in his blog post announcing the change.

Google named best place to work in America- Google was named the #1 best place to work in America by Fortune magazine on Thursday.

Twitter acquires Summify- Twitter acquired the social startup Summify this week, which uses social data to create a personalized news feed.

Google AdWords Update: More Granular Mobile Targeting Options-  Google improved its AdWords mobile targeting offering this week to allow marketers to target specific mobile devices.  Now users can target their ads to specific operating systems, e.g., iOS, Android, and webOS.  Marketers can now also target users based on Wi-Fi connection speed.

Yahoo! co-founder resigns- Yahoo! co-founder Jerry Yang formally resigned from the company after 17 years this week.  The resignation is effective immediately.  In addition to leaving his position on the Board of Directions, Yang also stepped down from the Boards of Yahoo! Japan Corporation and Alibaba Group Holding Limited.  In his resignation to the board, Yang explained, “My time at Yahoo!, from its founding to the present, has encompassed some of the most exciting and rewarding experiences of my life. However, the time has come for me to pursue other interests outside of Yahoo! As I leave the company I co-founded nearly 17 years ago, I am enthusiastic about the appointment of Scott Thompson as Chief Executive Officer and his ability, along with the entire Yahoo! leadership team, to guide Yahoo! into an exciting and successful future.”

Google introduces changes to page algorithm- Google announced a new algorithm change this week that reviews page layout.  If there are an excessive amount of ads about the fold on your page, your site may be penalized in the SERP. “We’ve heard complaints from users that if they click on a result and it’s difficult to find the actual content, they aren’t happy with the experience. Rather than scrolling down the page past a slew of ads, users want to see content right away,” explains Google.  “So sites that don’t have much content “above-the-fold” can be affected by this change. If you click on a website and the part of the website you see first either doesn’t have a lot of visible content above-the-fold or dedicates a large fraction of the site’s initial screen real estate to ads, that’s not a very good user experience. Such sites may not rank as highly going forward.”

What we’re reading:

• “Facebook Timeline Apps: Should You Use Them?”- Jill Duffy provides a user’s guide to Facebook’s new Timeline Apps service.
• “Young, in Love and Sharing Everything, Including a Password”- Matt Richtel explores the social etiquette for teenagers around sharing online passwords to Facebook, email, and other accounts in the digital era.

TSA: You recently contributed your online marketing predictions for 2012 on The Search Agents blog. You highlight three areas of expected growth or change in 2012: mobile, social, and online legislation.  I’d like to parse these three areas and discuss how they may impact search marketers in the coming year. 

In your predictions you state that 2012 will be the year of “NFC infrastructure innovation and consumer adoption.”  How could the proliferation of mobile payment services, such as Google Wallet, impact online marketers’ current approach to mobile marketing? 

Ranil: The proliferation of mobile payment services like Google Wallet is highly dependent on the presence and innovation of Point of Sale (POS) machines like MasterCard’s Paypass.  As you are probably aware while you walk into your local gas station, restaurant, or florist, not all merchants have an NFC payment POS System.  The same systems will need to expand to stadiums, airports, and other locations.  Currently, NFC technology most commonly applies to marketing offers, credit cards, and loyalty cards.  Eventually, leaders in the NFC space envision consumers scanning their devices as replacements for metro cards, boarding passes, concert tickets, etc.

As NFC infrastructure and security hits the tipping point, online marketers will have to adapt their mobile marketing objectives.  Rather than duplicating online desktop strategies, marketers will need to provide users with more offers, loyalty programs, and geo-specific deals integrated into mobile services like Google Wallet.  This divergence will also be fueled by advertising vehicle innovation by Google/AdMob, Foursquare, American Express, and others in mobile social, search, and local.

____________________

TSA: In reference to social media, you predict that the war between Google and Facebook will intensify in the coming year.  Will there be a winner, and if so, what would they have to achieve to secure their title as the social media victor?  

Ranil: It is unlikely we will be able to deem a social media victor in 2012.  Like any vertical, there are ebbs and flows between competitive firms punctuated by large shifts in market share and set off by market disruption.  I don’t envision large shifts in the upcoming year, but with such a dynamic marketplace, I cannot rule it out completely.  The more likely scenario is the continued grind of Google making plays against the market leader Facebook. 

____________________

TSA: If passed by the House on January 24^th, SOPA (Stop Online Piracy Act) threatens to significantly change the state of the web both domestically and internationally. Although some pundits have suggested that the bill will not pass, it seems unavoidable that something similar to SOPA or its Senate counterpart Protect IP Act will be passed in the future either in the U.S. or in Europe. What effects could internet filtration have on SEM, SEO and social media marketing?

Ranil: It does seem unavoidable that some sort of online legislation will be passed in the US or Europe, but I foresee ongoing court challenges for years to come.  Current legislative ideas are a real threat to net neutrality, jobs, and user-generated content.  Due to the broadly written language of SOPA, a free and open Internet is at risk.  Sites could be removed from a search engine index or prohibited from advertising on search/content networks.  Whole online verticals could crumble, while certain verticals could be filtered down to a few firms, killing competition and innovation.  Making companies liable for user-generated content would be impacted, which would have a lasting impact on SEO and online advertising.  Can you imagine the fallout for sites like Facebook and YouTube?  The way we find and classify data will become increasingly difficult, and the challenge will rest on the shoulders of data companies like Google.  This challenge will redefine how companies optimize their content, control their user-generated content, and talk to their consumers on Twitter and Facebook.  No one can accuse SOPA proponents of intending to create a China-like Internet censorship, but unfortunately, the result of Internet filtration would have an eerily similar impact on our society and economy.

____________________

TSA: Moving away from online marketing, what are you looking forward to in 2012?

Ranil: Away from online marketing, I am very excited to see where general technology innovation will take us this year.  CES (Consumer Electronics Show) this month will highlight many of these advances.  Some topics on my radar are connectivity solutions for cars and universal device platforms.  Cars connected to the internet open the door for countless time saving features and mobile apps.  The lines will continue to blur between our cell phones, TVs, tablets, E-readers, music devices, and laptops.

____________________

Ranil Wiratunga is a Group Account Director at The Search Agency

Twitter, Facebook, Google endorse alternate online piracy bill- Eight of the largest web-based companies, including Twitter, Facebook and Google, endorsed the OPEN Act on Thursday.  The OPEN Act, proposed by Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), is seen as an alternative to the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) and Protect IP, both of which have received heavy criticism from Silicon Valley.

Yahoo! announces Scott Thompson as new CEO- Yahoo! announced on Wednesday its new chief executive officer would be Scott Thompson, the former president of PayPal.  Analysts suggest the 54-year old tech veteran will face several challenges deciding the fate of Yahoo!’s strategy going forward.   Yahoo! has faced considerable setbacks over the last few years, as they’ve scrambled to compete with both Google and Facebook.

Google+ gains traction- Google researcher Paul Allen published an analysis of Google+ on Tuesday, stating that the social networking service has reached 62 million registered users, a fourth of which signed up in December 2011. “I expect the growth to continue to accelerate however,” explains Allen. “Google can continue to integrate Google+ into its other products and word of mouth will continue to build.  Most importantly, 700,000 Android devices are activated daily and this will become a very significant source of new users for Google+. That number will also grow next year.”

Top 1% of Mobile Users Consume Half of World’s Bandwidth, and Gap Is Growing- The New York Times reported on a new study from Arieso this week, which revealed an enormous gap in the world’s bandwidth global consumption.  According to Arieso’s research, which tracked 1.1 million customers of one European mobile provider over a 24-hour period, the top 1% of mobile users consumer half of the world’s bandwidth.  Arieso’s recent numbers suggest a widening gap between “extreme users” and everyone else. “In 2009, the top 3 percent of heavy users generated 40 percent of network traffic. Now, Arieso said, these users pump out 70 percent of the traffic,” reports Kevin J. O’Brien for the NYTimes.

Google disciplines itself in Google Chrome controversy- Google has downgraded its own Web Browser, Google Chrome, for 60 days in light of the recent PageRank controversy.  Controversy sparked after reports surfaced that Google pushed a marketing campaign based on paid links and ‘thin’ content to promote its Chrome Browser.  For more, check out Richi Jennings’ round up of industry reactions in “Do evil: ‘This post is sponsored by Google Chrome’ SEO spam.”

Wikipedia raises $20 million in donations- After roughly six weeks of aggressive fundraising, Wikipedia has announced that it successfully raised $20 million to keep the online encyclopedia up, running and free. “Your support is how we pay our bills. People like you, giving five dollars, twenty dollars, a hundred dollars. Thank you for helping us,” said Sue Gardner, executive director of Wikimedia Foundation. “We’re the No. 5 most-popular site in the world – we operate on a tiny fraction of the resources of any other top site. We will use your money carefully and well, I promise you.”

What we’re reading:

• The Search Agents Predictions for Online Marketing in 2012- Every year The Search Agents dust off their crystal call to predict the developments, opportunities and trends we can expect to impact the industry in the coming year. This year’s predictions highlight the role of mobile marketing, attribution and SEO content in 2012.
• 2012 Mobile Marketing Predictions- Reflecting on the changes in mobile marketing in 2011, Matt Grebow looks ahead at some of the possible trends, innovations and transactions that could change the landscape of mobile marketing in 2012.
• Marvell unveils the brains inside next generation of Google TV- The California based semiconductor designer, Marvell, announced this week that the next generation of Google TV devices would be build around one of its chipsets, enabling more advanced processing power.
• From fake Apple stores to WireDoo: 2011′s craziest tech stories- From MC Hammer’s search engine to fake Apple stores in China, Deborah Netburn from the LA Times explores the funniest and craziest tech stories of 2011.
• How Rick Santorum is Making His “Google Problem” Worse - The search results for [Santorum] have provided good fodder for the late night comedians, but also offer some important lessons in SEO reputation management for any brand marketer.

With this in mind, let’s consider some likely trends, innovations, and transactions that may grab the mobile headlines in 2012:

• Voice search will continue to skyrocket. Although text-based search won’t vanish from phones, as mobile artificial intelligence software (e.g., Apple’s Siri) becomes more sophisticated, we’ll see more people relying on voice-search services (and more operating systems and search engines taking advantage of them).

• Google will unveil a new mobile experience that will favor context over content. Forget content-heavy mobile sites. Expect to see more maps, shopping-comparison results, and even narrated results pages.

• Mobile CPCs will increase. As advertisers flock to mobile search, space will become a valuable commodity. As a result, click costs will rise.

• Mobile websites will become device agnostic. Mobile sites as a separate entity will go away as responsive web design takes hold as the de facto standard.

• Big retailers will embrace in-store mobile integration. Look for more apps that integrate shopping and e-payment options, as well as in-store tablet kiosks and augmented-reality offerings.

• Google will subsidize the little guys. Although Google’s free mobile site-building and GoMo products are helpful, small businesses will need further incentive to shift their marketing budget to mobile devices.

• Mobile analytics will get smarter. In order to increase investment in mobile marketing, the search giants will need to launch products that help advertisers define the value of a mobile click.

• Microsoft will purchase a large mobile-device manufacturer. Look for Microsoft to spend a pretty penny for Nokia or RIM or a similar company to compete with Google and provide a showcase for its Windows 8 operating system.

• E-wallets will wow consumers, but fail to persuade them. For many people, carrying credit-card information in their phone—no matter the benefits—just doesn’t feel safe. It will take time for consumers to get used to leaving their wallet at home.

• Tablets will gain the respect they deserve. As a spate of inexpensive tablet devices floods the marketplace, expect this shift to cannibalize mobile search traffic and pressure companies to design websites for tablets.

For more on what’s in store for mobile in 2012, take a look at my article  “The Mobile Revolution is Here” in today’s edition of MediaPost’s Online Media Daily.

Dewey Northington, Manager of Creative Design- Growth in mobile will continue to surge in 2012. As exemplified by Facebook’s recent acquisition of Gowalla, geographical data will be used more effectively. Location-based services will continue to grow with users’ expectations, as will the demand for companies to deliver a high-quality mobile experience.

Ranil Wiratunga, Group Account Director-

• Mobile: Year of mobile has come and gone, but innovation within mobile is not slowing down.  NFC technology is young, and 2012 will bring NFC infrastructure innovation and consumer adoption.  Mobile advertising products will mature, and Google AdWords/AdMob will be the flagship of mobile advertising maturation in 2012.
• Social: The battle between Google and Facebook will intensify.  Both hold incredible amounts of data.  Google’s ability to unify email, tools, sharing, etc. through Google+ will dictate the social war of 2012.  The question will be whether or not can Google+ increase usage to Facebook levels after their integration with other products and platforms.
• Online Legislation (SOPA – Stop Online Piracy Act): Some people say the internet is a modern day wild west.  In recent years, governing bodies through their constituents and lobbyists have become increasingly aware of the power of the internet and search engines. Legislation has the potential of slowing and, in some extreme cases, stopping free speech online.  Filtration can have a lasting impact on SEM, SEO, and Social Media of the future.  How certain countries handle online, mobile, and search engine legislation will again be formative in 2012.

Caragh McKenna, Senior Manager, SEO- Having monitored the huge amount of content orientated algorithmic changes in 2011, I would suggest the market in the coming year will build on the “fresher” approach to search with continuous emphasis on unique, engaging and quality content. I believe the importance that will be placed on the content elements will be reflected in a change to linking/promotions strategies. In 2012 the search market as a whole will embrace sophisticated unique content strategies that lend themselves to attracting links and promotions from stronger linking strategies. The most natural place for this to occur will be within the social media sphere and across marketing for mobile devises.

Keith Wilson, VP, Marketing Strategy-

1. More than 50% of the Super Bowl ads shown in 2012 will reference a “Facebook” logo.

2. Federal legislation around privacy laws will continue to stagnate into 2013.

3. Mobile search will exceed 20% share of search queries by the end of 2012.

Mike Solomon, VP, Marketing Strategy- While I thought 2011 was the year of Mobile, and it was, I think 2012 will be the year of Attribution.  There is so much opportunity for brands that can figure out the value of various conversion points, sources of traffic and relative value of leads, sales and customer relationships.  The key to making all of this happen is having the data, which is the breakthrough I will be looking for in the coming year.

Barbara Palmer, President – I am going with mobile again this year.  My 2011 prediction did come to fruition, and mobile was huge, but it was just the beginning.  2012 will be mobile expanded.  With Google stating that they will penalize sites that do not have a mobile website, rather than just reward those that do, it is crucial that mobile be a part of the marketing strategy and consideration set for all.  It is already exciting to see the creativity and functionality of apps, and I think with a hyper-focus on mobile, that creativity will be taken to new heights.  Couple that with the ease of online consumption (purchase, payment, price comparison), and mobile arms the consumer to be smarter and more efficient.  It will be an on-the-go 2012.

Sinead Downing, Manager, Reporting & Analytics- As companies continue to invest their online spend into other growing areas, e.g., mobile, social media and display, I think we’ll also see an increase in time devoted to evaluating the opportunities and benefits of these channels and understanding how they can add value to the online advertising portfolio.  As these channels have gained momentum, the available reporting has slowly begun to expand. In addition, because advertisers have invested in these channels, we now have a significant sample of available data, giving us a more comprehensive picture of how these channels can add value and increase overall online revenue and/or conversions.  So, I think there will be an increase in channel-specific analytics as that data becomes more available, which will in turn give us a better understanding of the impact these channels have on the account as a whole.

Louise Vine, Content Editor- I expect Siri and voice search technology will continue to grow and improve next year. I also think it could be possible for voice/mobile search, local, and social to all come together as one, perhaps through a medium such as the new Schemes service recently launched by Google+. Perhaps Siri, or technologies like it, will be able to conduct searches based on a user’s current search and social media activity, in addition to location and voice/text prompts. I think in terms of content, it will continue to get harder for sites to keep up with Google’s Panda updates unless they are constantly creating fresh, unique and engaging content. What’s more, I think it will become increasingly more difficult to scrape content from another site unless done on Google’s terms.

Mike Jarvinen, VP, Marketing Strategy- Microsoft triples down on Xbox as the “search hub” of the television, pulls in a ton more partners and buys something big: Hulu, DirecTV.

September Withers, Content Editor- In 2012 we’ll see the launch of a brand new social networking site, one which won’t have been developed through a search engine. I think the social site will be used primarily by a specific niche group of people, perhaps aimed towards a younger audience aged between 12-17. The site will be different, because it won’t just be fixated on your online social interactions with other people, but rather how you organize yourself. Perhaps like a social and educational tool to help manage your revision or homework schedules, while allowing its users to compare tips and discuss topics. It’ll be like an online Filofax or homework diary for adolescents.

Grant Simmons, Group Account Director- Although much of the focus is on Google, Bing, Facebook and YouTube as dominant search destinations, I think 2012 will be the year when some other less obvious search engines and methodologies come into their own, primarily; niche interest search engines, App search, (non computer) Device search (like TVs) and mobile voice driven search (a la Apple’s Siri).

In a world where Google is faced with anti-trust and privacy concerns, I don’t believe they’ll be able to defend their market share long term, especially since their efforts to expand beyond desktop and mobile map search has been slower than anticipated. Google TV is waiting to be reinvented as a viable consumer alternative (it will happen), but in the meantime other competitors are looking at non computer device search as an opportunity to tie together everyday life with the ability to find solutions to ‘in the moment’ problems. I still believe my prognostications of last year are somewhat realized, a few home appliances are now connected (think fridges http://www.lg.com/uk/about-lg/innovation/lg-technology/home-network-technologies.jsp), though the automobile is still in it’s early stages of location-aware recommendations, it’s coming. Soon.

For mobile, there’s already been a move toward App-based search based on brand-supplied Apps (find a local pizza store with Dominos app) and news organizations providing authority-based trust and loyalty (e.g. CNN and local news ABC7.) While we may look at these Apps as merely convenient, they transparently replace our need to visit Google or Bing to find the relevant information.

This year *will* bring an Apple electronics product that lives in your living room. There’s too much opportunity to provide the confluence of the “digital hub” Steve Jobs envisioned by creating a TV or enhanced AppleTV that offers similar functionality as Apples iPhone4S, with Star Trek-style voice activated commands through Siri that could potentially control your home, and through that interaction provide the search results you’re looking for, outside of the traditional computer experience.

These new or better channels will open up new or better opportunities to connect with consumers both though content optimization, their social graph, and semantic relevance; search will be uniquely personalized to who you are, your friends, your habits and your life style. This “übersegmentation” means more finite persona development, discreet targeting, and brand vs. non-brand differentiation.

What big trends or developments do you predict will impact online marketing in 2012?

10. Google Multi-Channel Funnels- In late August Google introduced five new reports to its Google Analytics platform, called Multi-Channel Funnels.  These new reports allow for more in-depth attribution calculations.  Rather than attributing a conversion solely to the last ad or link clicked, the reports seek to provide insight into the full conversion path over a 30-day period.  The reports represent a significant upgrade to Google’s Analytics offering, one which could significantly help online marketers better measure the value of traffic channels and marketing campaigns beyond the last click.

9.  Larry Pages takes over as Google CEO- Google announced at the beginning of 2011 that co-founder Larry Page would replace Eric Schmidt as its CEO in April 2011.  Page’s first nine months on the job have been marked by some pretty big changes, e.g., Google’s acquisition of Motorola, its release of Google Plus and a complete makeover of YouTube.  Page has doubled down on these services and well as on its search core, while chipping away at several smaller Google projects, e.g., Google Labs and API.

8. Google Analytics Premium- At the end of September Google launched a paid version of its Google Analytics platform that boasts more data, advanced tools, dedicated support and guarantees.  The premium service offers more processing power with increased data collection, advanced analysis with attribution modeling tools that enable marketers to test different models for assigning credit to conversions, 24/7 service and support, and service level guarantees for data collection, processing and reporting.  (The service is rumored to cost $150,000 annually.)

7. Facebook Timeline-  At Facebook’s annual f8 conference in September, Mark Zuckerberg unveiled several new features, including the new Facebook Timeline.  Facebook’s Timeline enables user to curate the mass of social activity they have accumulated over the past seven years on Facebook to tell a better, more dynamic story about themselves.  Timeline, which will go live internationally on December 26^th, promises to improve how users and brand engage on Facebook.

6. Google+- When Google+ was released in June, it was quickly heralded as Google’s most significant innovation since its launch of Google Instant.  After years of botched attempts at social networking, including Google Wave and Google Buzz, Google+ got off to a promising start, acquiring over 10 million users within the first days of its launch.  Often compared with Facebook, Google+ has been praised for its innovative, integrated suite of user-focused services and its intuitive interface.  What’s more, the service has been pinned as Google’s chance to loosen Facebook’s stranglehold on social networking data.  By creating its own active user base, Google+ could enable Google to generate social data, which could in turn be integrated into Google’s search algorithm to improve to the quality and relevance of its results.

5. Landing Page Quality Factors into AdWords Quality Score- In October Google announced that the relevance and quality of a landing page would carry more weight in calculating AdWords Quality Score.  The aim of the change is to improve customer experience with paid search ads, by incentivizing marketers to develop more targeted landing pages with the promise of a higher Quality Score.  Thanks to these changes, higher quality landing pages will be ranked higher for lower cost-per-click bids.

• Tip for 2012: Marketers should create targeted landing pages that are relevant to the keywords you’re bidding on, and which provide a positive customer experience.

4. Google SSL- 2011 has witnessed several polemic debates about the state and future of the Internet.  Buzzwords like “identity,” “privacy,” and “security,” among others, have acquired new meanings, as the government and tech industry work to determine the rules and boundaries that will govern the Web going forward.  Amidst these conversations, Google implemented a significant change to its secure search service.  Google now offers search user security with SSL coverage for users logged into their Google accounts or for anyone who goes directly to Google’s encrypted search engine. SSL secures user information during its travels between points on the web, by encrypting user data, rendering it indecipherable to anyone who may intercept it on the web.  The changes sparked a lively debate among SEOs about the impact of Google’s security changes on their SEO strategies.

3. Google Freshness Update- At the beginning of November Google introduced new changes to its search algorithm, aimed at making search results “fresher.”  The changes were built off of Google’s Caffeine structure and will enable Google to serve fresher results at a faster rate.  The changes reportedly impacted 35% of all searches, making it one of the biggest changes to Google’s search algorithm to date.

• Tip for 2012:  Before you start feverishly churning out “fresh” content in 2012, it’s important to review what exactly “fresh” content means to your site.  Make sure to check out Grant Simmons’ post Does Your Web Content Have an “Expired by” Date? for best practices and strategies for creating relevant, quality content, and David Waterman’s post Categorizing Your Content Creation for Optimal Freshness and Quality, which offers strategies for segmenting content creation into three categories: 1) Evergreen Content, 2) Brand/Industry Specific Content 3) Fun Content.

2. Panda Updates- Google’s Panda Updates forced an important conversation in 2011 about the definition and importance of quality, relevant content online.  First introduced in late February, the goal of the Panda Update was to further improve the relevance of Google’s search results, by identifying and affecting the rankings of low-quality sites, e.g., Content Farms.  Since then the Panda Updates have fundamentally shifted our definition of “quality content” online and, by extension, SEO itself.

• Tip for 2012:  Post-Panda SEO should focus on providing their visitors a quality site experience. Online content is no longer defined solely by well-edited text, but also by its ability to disseminate a brand’s presence and messaging across all earned media channels, e.g., social media, video sites, document sharing sites, etc.