Google unveiled a new search feature, Google Instant 
, on Wednesday, which promises to provide users with an easier, faster and predictive way to search. Some pundits are calling 
this the most significant change to the Google search page since the advent of ads. Google Instant anticipates what you are searching for, similarly to Google’s suggestions, and provides search results as you type
. For a great overview of the ins and outs of Google Instant, we highly recommend Matt McGee’s Complete User's Guide. 
Any new feature from Google is sure to get everyone's attention and generate a lot of buzz. But what impact will this actually have for both advertisers and users? We asked our Search Agents to weigh in on what Google Instant really means for SEO, SEM, and our search behavior:
SEO – Potentially a boon for big brands and long-tail queries.
I would think that those searchers looking for something very specific but who normally would just enter 1 word pre-Instant would now at least tend to click on/hit enter for what may match more closely their intent.
Thus instead of a 1-term search it would easily become a 3+ term search. And it will make it “more convenient” and induce them to add terms on the fly and to be much more specific in their search than they normally would be have been otherwise.
3 initial thoughts on impact:
1. Keyword demand numbers will drop for short tail, general terms as a % of total searches (whose volume will multiply many fold)
2. Long tail optimization becomes even more important as volume will increase
3. Descriptions of topics that grab a searcher’s attention but whose topic was not the original intended one will get more traffic vs. the old system
I think that if anything this Google Instant feature will give SEO and SEM editors an easy way to do more keyword research. You can type in “mortgage” for example and see all of the auto-keyword fills Google provides for you as you type in each letter of the query then add all of the relevant ones that show up to the optimization list. Linking specialists can then focus on those keywords as well.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that many people have installed the Google toolbar on their browsers and thus rarely have a need to use search on Google's actual site. For those who do most of their searches this way, nothing really changes with the addition of Google Instant.
Firstly, I presume we’ll see a hugely more accurate keyword research tool being released based on what Google can now glean from search behaviour at a top level...agreeing that long tail search numbers are going to drop significantly.
Secondly, the speed of Instant which (I assume was caffeine’s goal all along?) surely encourages more regular site updates, with more engaging content...we are certainly seeing in the UK a significant increase in the news, images and video results when using Instant. Blended results have been limited to date. This gives us an opportunity to really encourage deeper optimisation of these verticals!
What struck me was that the number of impressions would go up remarkably for more frequently searched/popular websites than less popular ones.
For example, in Google UK, “bbc” is the most popular keyword suggestion starting with the letter “b”. So, the BBC organic listing would be shown even when a person intends to search or type “british airways” or “Barclays” or even “brand value” (The listing would be shown as soon as I type in “b” but before I type in the second letter of my search term). But Barclays organic listing would be shown only when a person searches for “Barclays” or “band” or “banner” or “base guitar” (i.e, terms starting with “ba....” and before the searcher types in the third letter). So the increase in impressions would be significantly high for Barclays but not as high as it would be for BBC.
SEM – Could result in higher CPCs on high-volume keywords (or not).
There will be a need to expand your keyword buys to include more “partial terms”. For example, if you are buying the term “honda,” you should consider buying “hon” and “hond” since your “Honda” ad could be broad-matched to the search results with Google Instant. Furthermore, if you don’t have a robust list of broad or phrase match terms in your account, you may not show up on the SERP results at all for these partial queries. It potentially expands your keyword list in a significant way. I wonder if their keyword estimator tool will now give impression counts in “partial terms.”
Google is changing the way it counts an ad impression. Since the results can change in real-time, Google will now define an ad impression if a user pauses on the search results for 3 seconds or more (based on the assumption that a cognitive pause was three seconds long and they were now digesting the contents of the search results). Although they claim this shouldn’t have a material impact to clicks, only time will tell if we see a difference.
1. Google Instant will change searcher behavior - increasing engagement, while potentially making searchers more savvy.
2. CTR may increase as a result. A user may see Google’s auto fill queries as more relevant than their own and therefore, be more likely to click on an ad.
3. Impressions will change on head/tail terms depending on the vertical. In this real estate example, users may be steered away from searching on more generic, non-geo keywords and encouraged to select the more geo specific, relevant ad.
4. Advertisers may need to buy additional keywords to optimize performance and ensure there are no missed impressions. In the example above, if a user is “steered away” from a non-geo query, the advertiser will miss out on impressions if not also bidding on geo queries.
I’d predict two significant effects for search queries: 1) Google Suggest becomes the de facto gatekeeper for short queries, making targeting keywords featuring here more vital than ever; and 2) tail terms will see an increase in usage, but queries that are physically long (as in many words) will be used less as users see the results they want before writing out every word. I think despite Google’s new approach to measuring impressions many AdWords accounts will see an inevitable dip in CTR and potentially QS, but I’d envisage Google working to normalize this behind the scenes as the rollout gains pace.
Although even Google doesn’t dare predict the effect of Google Instant on paid-search advertisers, it could, conceivably, increase the average cost per click of keywords. While Google’s previous drop-down search suggestions could be easily disregarded, moving these to the search box itself may lead to a greater proclivity for allowing Google to complete its suggested searches. This could consolidate queries—increasing searches for high-volume (Google-predicted) keywords, while reducing searches for so-called tail terms. This could shift budgets to more expensive keywords (for advertisers who can afford it) and force advertisers who can’t to reduce their spending.
In terms of my own personal (non-work-related) search behavior, this week was the first time I can remember in months that I’ve actually gone to google.com to type in a search (to see how this new feature worked) rather than using my browser search box. I’m sure there are plenty of people not like me whose default is to go to google.com to do their searches, but knowing what that proportion is would be useful as a modifier in gauging the potential scope of the impact here.
AUTHOR’S NOTE: According to Gigaom.com , ad network Chitika is reporting that 18% of Google’s traffic yesterday came from its home page. We would welcome any additional data points on the % of Google searches originating from browser toolbars vs. Google.com
What aspects of SEM bid management are going to change the most due to Google Instant? I'm going to go against the current and say: Not much.
There's the idea that Instant might drive more searches and ad impressions, but search and impression volume have already been going up robustly year after year. Google started the US roll-out of Instant yesterday. Are there large-spending accounts (like TSA's clients) that saw, even from this partial day's data, noticeably higher impression volume on Wednesday than the previous day or week? Because I don't see any.
Some are worried about the possibility of higher CPCs and lower Quality Scores, but as I explained in Maximize Your CPC 
and The Highest Quality Score is not Always the Best Quality Score 
, these effects would be a good thing.
The fundamentals of bidding, like Google chief economist Dr. Hal Varian's description of using the Bid Simulator to determine your profit-maximizing bid 
, are solid. Bidding and data analysis will still use the same techniques and formulas, we just might have different specific numbers to look at.
The biggest possible impacts I see will be on user experience first and perhaps keyword selection, not bid management.
SEARCH BEHAVIOR - Faster may not always be better.
Tried a typical search looking for “cooling fans” (yes, I’m geeky like that). A few observations/key takeaways:
- It got where I wanted to go, not as “quicker” as Google inferred in their demos and ‘time-saving clock.’ The slow down came when my eyes went up and down from suggestion to search results... It was a little distracting... What’s interesting is that paid search, especially when there’s images at the top of the right search results, drew my eyes immediately... Good call Google on better CTR on those ads.
- There’s going to be many more partial search queries – I found myself pressing enter quicker and actually ending up with a different search result than displayed e.g. “cooling f” <enter> doesn’t deliver “cooling fan” results.. Even though the auto-complete is there. It’s no different from the former Google Suggest in that regards, it’s just that the instant results shown are from the “suggest” not from what you get by pushing enter... Major disconnect here.
- Why have “I’m feeling lucky” in the drop down suggestions? It’s distracting and I’ve never understood the value there, nor the ‘fun’ aspect it infers. I wonder how many people click on that?
- Distraction, distraction, distraction. Having all the movement whilst I’m search is a little off-putting. Power users who type fast are treated to a frenetic slideshow.
- It’s not perfect (yet) - I tried typing in my old company “Simmonet Marketing” - It took until “Simmonet Market” for Google to present the correct results, but add another “in” to the search query and BANG Google thinks you’re onto something else (Simonet) - so is this part of their thought process? If you don’t select the result it thinks you should after two tries, the suggestion moves on? Interesting logic, something to test.
- FINAL THOUGHT – Wow! Google has an awful lot of computer power.
Since it seems to work most often when the user is signed in to their Google account, it will primarily affect searches when the user already knows what they’re looking for and has performed a similar search previously. For example, if I start typing “home”, it gives me options like “home depot” “home goods” and “homeworld.” I assume that’s because I visit Home Depot and Home Goods with some frequency. However, I was actually searching for “homework,” and it didn’t give me that as an option until I typed the “k.”
There is little research on the effectiveness of this technique for search. One interesting study 
came from Microsoft back in 2007.
The interactive query expansion (IQE) variant, Real-Time Query Expansion (RTQE) can lead to a better quality of initial queries; however Google Instant Search emphasizes that more care is needed in how query expansion can be presented in the interface.
While it's an interesting idea and impressive technically, I think the thresholds they have set leave something to be desired. If you type for instance [how to fix] Google immediately brings up results for "how to fix a leaky faucet"; I can tell you with some authority that the probability of someone wanting those results, just given that they've typed [how to fix] is EXTREMELY low.
Why bother bringing results up with such a low probability of satisfying the user?; the net effect is mostly to distract all the other users who don't care about faucets.
Try "where can i" and it brings up "where can I buy silly bandz" (whatever those are). Silly bandz may be the most popular query, but it's not worth distracting all those people that want to buy Britney Spears Albums, N,N-Diethyl-meta-toluamide, or gold coins! I think the thresholds they've set for this to bring results back are ridiculously low and they will have to revisit them down the road.
Thanks to all our agents for sharing their initial thoughts on Google Instant. With less than 24 hours of experience, it’s fair to say we have more speculation than prognostication and observation than insight. We’re just getting the dialogue started, so leave a comment and let us know what you think. Is this a game-changing innovation for search marketers? Or a cool, but over-hyped feature that won’t materially impact your approach to SEM or SEO?
 Dr. Hal Varian's description of using the Bid Simulator to determine your profit-maximizing bid: http://www.thesearchagents.com../../../../../2009/09/optimal-bidding-part-1-behind-the-scenes-of-google-adwords-bidding-tutorial/